Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.025989 0.029546 0.033429 0.037983 0.043182 0.048937 0.055797
2025-02-16 0.020095 0.024870 0.030552 0.037823 0.046900 0.057882 0.072216
2025-02-23 0.017014 0.022297 0.028960 0.038006 0.050008 0.065443 0.086893
2025-03-02 0.014602 0.020044 0.027242 0.037496 0.051797 0.071133 0.099429
2025-03-09 0.013185 0.018843 0.026642 0.038230 0.055113 0.078966 0.115502
2025-03-16 0.011724 0.017361 0.025419 0.037848 0.056671 0.084330 0.128455
2025-03-23 0.010943 0.016746 0.025326 0.039025 0.060535 0.093316 0.147643
2025-03-30 0.009696 0.015281 0.023790 0.037807 0.060543 0.096353 0.157781
2025-04-06 0.008795 0.014247 0.022794 0.037291 0.061536 0.100930 0.170747
2025-04-13 0.007831 0.013012 0.021350 0.035879 0.060877 0.102687 0.179069
2025-04-20 0.007491 0.012765 0.021474 0.037065 0.064657 0.112154 0.201603
2025-04-27 0.007164 0.012503 0.021540 0.038138 0.068316 0.121715 0.225246
2025-05-04 0.006855 0.012255 0.021626 0.039287 0.072284 0.132324 0.252221
2025-05-11 0.006351 0.011617 0.020969 0.039034 0.073668 0.138380 0.271291
2025-05-18 0.005966 0.011154 0.020582 0.039228 0.075887 0.146170 0.294531
2025-05-25 0.005522 0.010540 0.019857 0.038701 0.076640 0.151178 0.312675
2025-06-01 0.005283 0.010294 0.019799 0.039460 0.079995 0.161611 0.343130
2025-06-08 0.004927 0.009788 0.019194 0.039064 0.080957 0.167270 0.364025
2025-06-15 0.004781 0.009687 0.019374 0.040281 0.085372 0.180488 0.402840
2025-06-22 0.004387 0.009045 0.018413 0.039023 0.084393 0.182143 0.415907
2025-06-29 0.004100 0.008601 0.017819 0.038489 0.084926 0.187101 0.437042
2025-07-06 0.003750 0.007997 0.016841 0.037030 0.083260 0.187012 0.446275
2025-07-13 0.003668 0.007961 0.017066 0.038255 0.087787 0.201361 0.491816